Potential Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on the Socio-Economic Situations in Nigeria: A Huge Public Health Risk of unprecedented Concern

Introduction

Coronaviruses are potentially single-stranded enveloped viruses with an RNA that measures about 26 to 32kb [1]. All coronaviruses that infect humans are zoonotic, with bats being a primary reservoir for most of them [2, 3]. The 21st century has witnessed the incidences of three coronavirus outbreaks, with the latest being the coronavirus disease of 2019, also known as the COVID-19 [1, 4, 5]. The outbreak of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (SARS-COV) in 2003 resulted in 8096 cases globally with 774 deaths, while the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-COV) resulted in 2500 cases with 860 deaths [6, 7]. On the backdrop of the above phenomenon, the emergence of a new coronavirus disease has raised great Public Health concerns and may prove to have scathing global socioeconomic consequences in the long run, if the pandemonium continued to run it’s full cause unhindered by robust Public Health intervention strategies that are dependable and sustainable .

Nonetheless, it is no longer breaking news that COVID-19 has shut down the world everyday activities in all spheres of lives. The highly infectious and very deadly virus has eroded the real meaning of humanity, which revolves around the fact that man is a social animal as espoused by Aristotle. The relationship which hitherto existed between different people in the society and brings about social bonding has been drastically reduced, as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and the world remains in constant increasing panic till date. The world is shaking, countries fighting individually and collectively to defeat what could be regarded as one of the greatest challenges, that has ever confronted mankind. It has revolted against social, economic, religious, political, cultural and academic gathering, among others. The pandemic has fought both powerful and non-powerful countries. It has also killed both the wealthy and the poor masses in significant numbers to the abashed and worry of the rich and poor nations.

COVID-19 pandemic was first reported in Wuhan, located in the Hubei province of China in early December, 2019 [1]. The origin of COVID-19 outbreak has been linked to a Huanan Seafood market in China that deals with the sale of live animals; this strongly suggests likelihood of zoonotic infection supposedly links to the viral pandemic outcome [8, 9, 10]. However, several conspiracy theories exist as regards to the origin of the virus, with some speculations of the virus being a biological weapon from China, amid many other unsubstantiated claims especially those linked with the 5G network being developed from China [11].

Despite these speculations and accusations, the world has been gripped by the novel virus which has now caused 485,423 deaths across 215 countries, regions and territories [12]. Therefore, the World Health Organisation, regional and local health bodies have adopted measures to stop the further spread of the disease, and has also tasked the public and the leadership of various countries to enforce the measures necessary to limit the spread of the virus such as social distancing, regular hand washing, lockdown and closing of borders [13].

In Nigeria, President Muhammadu Buhari in two successive broadcasts to the nation ordered a lockdown of certain parts of the country such as Abuja, Lagos and Ogun State [14]. Mr Buhari also ordered the restriction of human and vehicular movements across the country [15].

Consequently, several countries are already grappling with the deleterious effects of the measures set up to combat COVID-19 in various spheres of their socio-economic existence of many countries by considerably halting the economic activities in these countries [16]. According to a study on the impact of COVID-19 lockdown in Sub-Saharan Africa carried out by Teachout, et al. [17], it was reported that 9.1% of the population has fallen into extreme poverty, with 65% of this being due to the lockdown, and about 30% of the total population have exhausted their savings, which incapacitates them from responding to future shocks [17]. In Nigeria, the federal government sent a revised budget to the National Assembly due to constant drop in crude oil prices, and thereby revised the budget proposal revenue projection for the 2020 fiscal period by a difference of N3.3 trillion naira from the initially approved amount of 8.41 trillion naira to 5.08 trillion naira [18]. Meanwhile, amid the partial lockdown of the country, economic activities at the macro and micro levels have been grounded, while social activities are also halted.

The above situations have forced governments, both at the state and federal levels to put in place some palliative measures to cushion the effects on the masses and businesses. At the centre of it all is the increasingly public health risk or concern, which this study seeks to provide answers to.

The novel coronavirus has taken its grip on Nigeria economy and her citizens, forcing the federal government to declare partial lockdown in Lagos, Ogun and Abuja and restriction of vehicular and human movements across the country [14, 15]. These measures are aimed at curtailing the further spread of the virus, even as 35 states of the federation have recorded cases of the virus bringing the number of cases in the country to 22,020 with 542 deaths as at 24th June 2020 [19].

The measures have affected social and economic situations across the country. Consequently, several wedding ceremonies have been cancelled while most economic activities have also been halted [20]. These situations have affected both low and high-income earners in various businesses. More so, traders and transporters have been affected while religious activities are now being conducted mostly on the internet and only those who can afford to buy data and smart phones are those favoured while the poorest poor in the country could not get involved in online worshipping [21].

The overall impact of these situations is on Public Health wellbeing, hence ban on social gathering and introduction of social distancing approach in human social interaction was very strange in this part of the world. However, governments at the federal, state and the grassroot levels have not provided tangible palliatives to the masses, to cushion the effects on the people which have made most people who live from hand to mouth to ignore the preventive measures in pursuit of food at the detriment of Public Health protection strategies. The objectives of this study are, therefore, to ascertain the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the federal government of Nigeria with respect to the trend of governance (ii) To analyse and evaluate the brunt of COVID-19 pandemic on businesses in Nigeria. (iii) To analyse the effect COVID 19 pandemic on socio-economic activities on the Nigerian citizens especially, with those on the daily income earners, across the country. However, it is strongly believed that information generated from this study would promote government and other relevant health agencies to plan towards providing sustainable and dependable palliative measures to cushion the socio-economic impact of COVID 19 pandemic on the citizens.

Discussion

The world is no longer buzzing with sports, tourism, orchestra, religious fiesta and other cheering activities. The Public Health measures aimed at limiting the spread of COVID-19 has largely influenced the various aspects of social human interaction, as well as all sectors of the economy such as the primary sectors (responsible for extracting raw materials), secondary sectors (responsible for the production of the finished product) and the tertiary sectors (all service providers) [40]. It has also greatly affected social and familial interactions with reduced interactions among friends and social groups. However, more disturbing is the increasing reports of domestic and sexual abuse due to lockdown and quarantine [44] with reports of a 25% increase in calls to help-lines on domestic abuse [45].

The most affected primary sectors of the COVID-19 pandemic are the Petroleum and oil industry, as well as the agricultural industry [40]. There has been an increased need for agricultural products, due to increased panic buying with a lower yield of products [46]. The petroleum and oil industry as well suffered some major setbacks initially due to trade disagreements between Saudi Arabia and Russia leading to a great fall in the price of oil [47]. The ban on movement and travelling also affected the consumption of petroleum products. In Nigeria, due to the drop in oil price, the budget review proposal has been sent to the Senate for approval, with a 39% slash in the original budget [20]. The manufacturing sectors were badly hit in the pandemic; due to lockdown and quarantine rules as working from home is not a feasible option for this aspect of the economy and limitations in importation being a barrier, especially in countries like Nigeria whose manufacturing industries are hugely dependent on the importation of raw materials especially from China [40, 48]. A reduction of 1.2% production is predicted in the global chemical industry; their worst growth since the financial crash of 2008 [49].

The tertiary sector such as the education sectors, finance sectors, hospitality and tourism sectors, sports industry, media and information industry, real estate and housing industry and so on continue to feel the brunt of the pandemic outbreak [40]. Closure of all schools including primary, secondary and tertiary institutions is one of the major recommendations advised to limit the spread of COVID-19, as school gathering has been proven to be a major means of disease spread during outbreaks [50]. The United Kingdom was estimated to lose 3% of its gross domestic product due to school closure [51]. This correlates with the model study which showed that closure of schools for four weeks will cost the state of New York in the United State 1.1 billion dollars and a nationwide school closure will cause a loss of 1% of the country’s gross domestic product [52]. While most advanced nations are developing the use of new technology such as e-learning platforms, such cannot be fully implemented in Nigeria, due to the divide in the educational system whereby certain services cannot be accessed by people in poor rural settings and some in urban settings [53].

COVID-19 outbreak has hurt businesses, the financial market and global financial economy generally, due to uncoordinated international governmental responses causing disarray in the international supply chain [40]. Lockdown and self-isolation significantly reduced production, demand and consumption of certain goods and services [54]. According to Olisah, et al. [55], the Nigerian businesses affected most are the start-ups and small scale enterprises, consultancy, hospitality and aviation sectors [55]. The tourism, hospitality and aviation sectors are arguably the biggest losers in the COVID-19 outbreak era. The World Travel and Tourism Council has estimated that over 50 million jobs may be lost globally due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and the sector faces a great risk in that regard with great consequences as the tourism sector accounts for 10% of the World’s gross domestic product [56]. The aviation sector is struggling with unprecedented losses as various travel bans have been placed, with only highly essential travels allowed [57]. Some airlines have asked for bailout funds to enable their sustainability, with UK airlines asking for 7 billion Euros [58]. The Asset Management Corporation of Nigeria (AMCON) has also called out for bailout funds for Nigerian airlines to prevent a shutdown of the aviation sector [59].

The sports industry as well saw a major halt in activities with postponement and cancellation of major local and international sporting competitions due to COVID-19 pandemic as large gatherings in stadia and other sports facilities could be a potent means for the spread of the virus [50, 60]. However, the information and research industry has experienced an upsurge as various research bodies and institutions such as The Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI), are leading various efforts to develop vaccines and treatment regimens against the COVID-19 pandemic, having been backed and sponsored by large companies and corporations such as the Gate’s Foundation, Welcome and Master card who have donated several millions of dollars to the efforts being made in the research field [61, 62].

While religious gatherings may not be classified as a sector of the economy, religious activities play a significant role in the aspect of social, psychological and spiritual wellbeing of those who partake in it. The COVID-19 pandemic has also had a significant impact on religious gatherings, even as gathering of such magnitude tends to be a potent means of the viral spread. Thus guidelines such as regulated numbers of worshippers have been placed on most religious institutions, while those unable to partake due to these regulations can worship online. While the economic impacts of the ban on religious gathering are not determined, the negative social impact has been tremendously enormous on the overall livelihood of existence of the citizens across the globe.

However, a particular factor which is usually important in Public Health discourses, especially in light of the preventative measures and the socio-economic impact of these measures is the mental health of individuals involved. Public Health emergencies affect the people and might lead to fear, insecurity, stigma due to disease, loss of jobs, economic losses and so on and may lead to certain psychiatric conditions such as depression [63]. This agrees with a study carried out by Brooks, et al. [64] in which it was shown that people who have been in quarantine are likely to experience post quarantine stress syndrome . This also agrees with the work carried out by Wu, et al. [65] after the SARS outbreak showed that patients and some hospital employees suffer from post quarantine stress and some lasted for as long as three years after the outbreak. Also, quarantine of health workers usually results in avoidance syndrome, thereby creating a phobia for approaching patients [66]. Some quarantine stressors were outlined as long period of quarantine, fears of cross-infection, frustration and boredom, shortage of supplies and poor flow of information, while post quarantine stressors majorly involves lack or loss of finances and the stigma associated with quarantine [64]. It is therefore pertinent to set up measures which will mitigate post quarantine stressors. Thus, these critical aspects of Public Health engagement is literally lacking in developing communities like Nigeria, and probably in other Sub-Sahara African countries, even as there are visible lack of functioning health care facilities especially in the rural communities, which has remained a huge source of concern in this period of frustration and high wave of crime in our communities, due to hunger and potential poverty created by COVID 19 pandemic [67] The need to consciously work very hard and diligently by government and other relevant stakeholders in health service delivery to correct the visible lack of clinical infrastructure in Nigeria would help in this direction. These would therefore, improve the overall Public Health wellbeing of the general masses in the country.

Conclusion

The outbreak of the pandemic has taken its toll on the socio-economic aspect of the world, as well as it has also affected every other aspect of human life. Despite the measures taken, there has continues to be an increase in the numbers of cases and deaths associated with COVID-19. The Nigerian government and concerned organizations and individuals are battling to contend these cases. The World Health Organization had been speaking on the need to increase efforts by African Governments to contend the virus due to the poor situation of health care in Africa. Amidst these efforts, markets, schools, churches and other public places have been shut down and remain so closed. These has increased the sufferings of many Nigerians who are largely poor. But due to the precarious nature of the virus, governments at all levels have appealed to the masses to be patient though without tangible and sustainable palliatives for the most vulnerable Nigerians amidst the country’s poverty index. However, because COVID-19 is a Public Health disease, concerns for the safety of individuals and the entire masses remain the revolving point of discourse. Therefore, based on the objectives for this study and from the various works of literature reviewed, COVID-19 pandemic has impacted negatively on the federal government of Nigeria, forcing it to review its budget and spending. Meanwhile, the study has ascertained that businesses (large and small, corporate or not) have been greatly affected, making some Organizations to reduce the workforce, while some had threatened to do the same. This may increase the rate of crime and other problems in Nigeria and Africa at large. On the individual level, COVID-19 has affected income generation and earning, which has impacted negatively on families. The mental health of many individuals are also of immense concern due to the stressors associated with the outbreak of COVID-19 in the country. Therefore, it is pertinent that various long term and medium-term plans should be on available as a tool to resuscitate the Nigerian economy from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak.

Recommendations

The following recommendations are made based on the findings of this study:

1. All precautionary measures put in place by government and relevant health bodies aimed at tackling COVID-19 should be obeyed and sustained.
2. Due to the fragile economic situation in Nigeria before the coronavirus pandemic, the country should not be subjected to total lockdown for so long. A partial lockdown should be adopted in order not to worsen the economic situation. The partial lockdown of states should be reviewed from time to time, while markets and other small and medium scale enterprises should be allowed to open biweekly at the least with a controlled influx of consumers. More loan should be given to businesses to help cushion the effects of COVID-19 on business organizations
3. People that stay at home should be sensitized on what to do to avoid developing mental health problem as a result of solitude.

While social gatherings (physical contacts) should remain banned, online association and other means that will satisfy the entertainment needs of the people should be encouraged.

Conflict of Interest: None reported to the best of my knowledge by any one.

Acknowledgement

We are collectively indebted to Prof. S.D Abbey, Prof. G.N Wokem and Prof F.B Sigalo for their moral support and encouragement. We are also grateful to Dr Azuonwu Goodluck, Flourish Obi-Azuonwu and Jossy-Daniels Obi- Azuonwu for their understanding and cooperation during the write up of the article. We are also grateful to the I/T Department of Rivers State University for your massive technical support during the sourcing and assemblage of relevant literatures that forms the critical and indispensible parts of the article. We are very grateful indeed.