Eastern Region Holds the Key to Future Increase in Rice Production in India

Decade-wise increase in Area, Production and Yield

The production of rice in India has increased more than five times since 1950-51 and made India self-reliant on rice from the early 1980s (Figure 1). The sources of growth in the past were an increase in area and yield, which has increased by 1.5 and 3.8 times, respectively since 1950-51. Though during the Green Revolution period (1966-1989), the production growth has accelerated, during the 2000s, the growth has decelerated. It is observed that the average additional production during the 2000s has decreased (Table 1).

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More precisely, additional production during the 1990s over the 1980s was 20.3 million tons, which was reduced to 9.15 million tons during the 2000s. However, the production increase has recovered during the 2010s and the recent period (2019-21). The additional yield has also reduced from 387 kg/ha during the 1990s to 200 kg/ha during the 2000s. However, some signs of improvement in yield were noticed during the recent period (2010-11 to 2021-22). The additional average yield has increased from 200 kg/ha during the 2000s to 421 kg/ha during the 2010s.

Note: 1970s refers to the average of data for the period 1970-71 to 1979-80 (ten years) and so on. The year 2019-21 refers to the average of data for the period 2019-20 to 2021-22 agricultural years. Table 1: Increase in Average Production, Yield, and Area, of Rice in India (1970-71 to 2021-22).

Region-Wise Scenarios

The area, production, and yield of five regions of India are presented in Table 2. Eastern states account for about 56% of the total rice area and 50% of the total rice production of India. Southern and Northern regions cover 20 and 11 percent of the total area, respectively and contribute 24 and 15 percent of the total production, respectively when data for the recent period (2019-21) was considered. However, the average yield realization is only 2.45 t/ha in eastern states in comparison to 3.79 t/ha in northern and 3.41 t/ ha in southern states. In the northern and southern states, more than 90% of the rice area is grown under irrigated conditions while the irrigated area in the eastern region is 54%. The yield is higher in northern and southern states due to more irrigated areas and better crop management practices adopted by farmers. Therefore, there is scope to boost average yields in eastern states by expanding irrigated areas, use of drought-tolerant and flood-tolerant varieties, and better management practices.

The government of India has been implementing two mega programs to increase the production and productivity of rice throughout the country. The National Food Security Mission (NFSM) was introduced during the year 2007 while the Bringing Green Revolution to Eastern India (BGREI) was implemented from the year 2010. Various incentives like improved seeds, micronutrients, farm implements, machines, irrigation devices, plant protection chemicals, biopesticides for promoting integrated pest management, soil ameliorants, training to farmers, etc. were provided to farmers under the two mega programs. Other supporting services like credit, insurance, marketing facilities, etc. were also provided through various schemes. It has been demonstrated through NFSM and BGREI that a significant yield increase can be achieved in eastern states with the available technologies Pathak H, et al. [8, 9]. The effects of the programs in terms of increase in production and productivity in the five regions are listed in Table 2. The increase in yield was greater in the Eastern and Northeastern regions than in the other three regions during the two periods under comparison. The yield has increased by 38% and 40% in the eastern and northeastern regions, respectively in comparison to 13, 9 to 18 percent in the southern, northern, and western regions, respectively during the last 14 years (2008-09 to 2021-22). Despite the decrease in the area, the production has increased by 15.78 million tons in the eastern region accounting for a 34% increase over the pre-NFSM period. The other four regions together added less (14.49 million tons during the same period. The southern region’s contribution was 7.26 million tons mainly due to an increase in area in the state of Telangana.

Figures in parentheses indicate percent. Table 2: Changes in Average Area, Production, and Yield of Rice between the Triennium Ending 2007-08 and 2021-22.

Concerns to Future Increase in Production

Agricultural intensification has resulted in detrimental environmental impacts such as deterioration of soil fertility resulting in yield decline or plateauing, shrinking groundwater levels, pollution of soil, air, water, and biodiversity loss. In the Green Revolution belts of India, though rice productivity is high, the present cropping patterns (rice-wheat and rice-rice) are inefficient in terms of sustainable use of natural resources like land and water Dutta S, et al. [10, 11, 12]. Due to the intensification, the micronutrients and carbon contents of the soils have gone down.

Yield Decline

In the last five years, there has been a sign of yield plateauing in major irrigated states (Figure 2). The rice yields fluctuated between 4.0 to 4.4 t/ha in Punjab and 3.1 to 3.8 t/ha in the other four irrigated states during the period 2017-18 to 2021-22. There is now growing concern that other non-price factors, such as deteriorating soils, reducing groundwater table, and reduced public investment in research have contributed to poor performance in recent years in irrigated areas and must be addressed through research efforts and other public policies. The immediate need is to break the yield ceilings in the irrigated ecosystem by developing super varieties that have a yield advantage of 20% or more.

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Groundwater Overdraft

The level of groundwater has been exploited by more than 100 percent in states like Punjab and Haryana. Groundwater extraction has reached critical levels or over-exploited in many states (Table 3) and is widespread in states like Haryana, Punjab, and Tamil Nadu. Punjab and Haryana have among the lowest irrigation-water productivity (0.22 kg/m3) in comparison to eastern states Sharma BR, et al. [12]. One of the reasons for the over-exploitation of groundwater is the supply of free or excessive subsidized power to the farmers in these states. Therefore, there is a need for the rationalization of power subsidies. Unless policy decisions are taken to halt the overexploitation, the areas will be unproductive after some years. The adoption of water-saving rice technologies, improved water management practices, changes in cropping patterns, and improved nutrient management will bring efficiency to rice production in those areas Dhiman J, et al. [13, 14, 15].

*Units of Assessment: Blocks/Mandals/Taluks/ Firkas. # Indicates the stage of groundwater extraction is between 90-100% of their availability. $ Indicates the groundwater extraction exceeded the annual extractable groundwater resources (availability). Figures in parentheses indicate the percent rice area under irrigation in the region. Table 3: Groundwater Exploitation Levels and Concerns (Critical / Over-Exploited) in Major Rice-Growing States of India (2020).

Deterioration in Soil Quality

A significant reduction in manure use in rice cultivation has been observed in irrigated states threatening the soil quality and sustainability of rice production in these areas Samal P, et al. [3]. Though farmers apply some of the macronutrients like N, P, and K, they usually neglect the application of micronutrients (Iron, Zinc, Sulphur, Manganese, Boron, and Molybdenum). Moreover, the soil quality is deteriorating from the loss of organic carbon, erosion, soil compaction, salinization, and heavy metal introgression into the soil from industries and pesticides. Even the N, P, and K fertilizers are not applied proportionately. A study using panel data for selected states revealed that there was excessive use of Nitrogen in the irrigated areas of Indo-Gangetic Plains Praveen KV, et al. [16]. The analysis suggested that the crop response has decreased considerably in the green revolution states of Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, and Andhra Pradesh. The percentage of farmers overusing nitrogen in these states is comparatively higher. While 78 percent of farmers from Punjab considered in the analysis overused nitrogen, the values were 74, and 68 percent, in the states of Haryana, and Andhra Pradesh, respectively. In the long run, this causes an imbalance in soil and plant nutrition resulting in yield decline. Balanced use of fertilizers, application of compost, green manuring, change in cropping pattern, application of micronutrients, etc. will help in ameliorating the situation in many areas.

Management of Green House Gases: Agricultural soils contribute to the greenhouse effect primarily through the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as methane, nitrous oxide (N2O), and carbon dioxide (CO2). In the agricultural sector, rice cultivation is considered one of the major contributors to GHG emissions Pathak H, et al. [15]. The irrigated, waterlogged, and flood-prone rice fields contribute more towards methane emissions. Upland rice fields are potential sources of N2O. Generally, an increase in N2O emission is observed from rice fields following irrigation and precipitation. The main source of CO2 from agriculture is through soil management such as tillage which triggers CO2 emission through the biological decomposition of soil organic matter. Rice crop residue burning in the fields in many Indian states, particularly in Punjab, Haryana, and western Uttar Pradesh adds to CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. Several mitigation technologies and strategies viz. change in cropping pattern, irrigation scheduling, use of straw compost, application of industrial wastes like basic slag and phosphogypsum as soil amendments, cultivation of rice cultivars having low GHG emission potential, etc. are recommended to reduce the GHG emissions from rice fields Bhattacharyya P, et al. [17].

Promotion of Mechanization: With the process of development, the non-farm sector is growing and young people are attracted to non-farm jobs due to higher wage rates in that sector and higher drudgery involved in agricultural operations. Therefore, the growing labour shortage is observed throughout the country during the peak periods of different agricultural operations like transplanting, weeding, and harvesting leading to higher agricultural wages year after year. As more than 86% of farmers’ holdings in India are marginal (< 1 ha) and small (< 2 ha), custom hiring centres should be strengthened/promoted by the government to mechanize farm operations, which not only reduce the cost of cultivation but also drudgery in farm operations. The mechanization of rice farming is low in the eastern region in comparison to the northern, southern, and western region states Samal P, et al. [3]. Therefore, mechanization has to be promoted aggressively in the eastern region to bring efficiency in rice production.

India receives about 1200 mm of rainfall out of which 75% is received during the monsoon season (June- September) and 10.5% during the post-monsoon season (October-December). During pre-monsoon season (Mar- May) about 11% of rainfall is received. Rainfall in the eastern and north-eastern region states is high compared to other regions (Table 3) and replenishes the groundwater level more quickly Pathak H, et al. [14]. However, the region faces droughts and floods due to erratic rainfall. Varieties tolerant to drought and submergence are required for the region. Though some submergence-tolerant varieties are available they are not suitable for turbid water conditions. Further, the farmers of the eastern region do not realize MSP due to poor infrastructure development Samal P, et al. [2, 3]. Therefore, it is prudent to incentivize farmers of eastern and northeastern regions in the form of improved varieties and management practices, marketing-storage cum insurance facilities, irrigation development, etc. to improve rice productivity.